Melbourne Cup · FormWiz Race Preview

TABHorseHcp (kg)Barrier

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James J Braddock

53.524

$41.0 James J Braddock

Wine Dark Sea

56.023

$81.0 Wine Dark Sea

Vauban

56.522

$151.0 Vauban

Royal Supremacy

56.021

$201.0 Royal Supremacy

Kizlyar

53.520

$67.0 Kizlyar

Goodie Two Shoes

55.019

$34.0 Goodie Two Shoes

Trustyourinstinct

57.018

$10.0 Trustyourinstinct

Shockletz

51.017

$8.5 Shockletz

Mr Monaco

52.516

$26.0 Mr Monaco

Hopewell Rock

54.515

$6.5 Hopewell Rock

Juja Kibo

55.014

$16.0 Juja Kibo

Onesmoothoperator

54.513

$251.0 Onesmoothoperator

Future History

53.512

$81.0 Future History

Zahrann

54.511

$71.0 Zahrann

Zakouma

52.010

$26.0 Zakouma

Point Of Law

53.09

$9.0 Point Of Law

Enfjaar

56.08

$19.0 Enfjaar

So You Are

54.07

$15.0 So You Are

Asterix

55.06

$151.0 Asterix

Soul Of Spain

54.55

$18.0 Soul Of Spain

Strictly Business

53.04

$201.0 Strictly Business

Sons And Lovers

57.53

$21.0 Sons And Lovers

Knight's Choice

56.52

$151.0 Knight's Choice

Middle Earth

56.51

$31.0 Middle Earth

Expected Pace: Solid* Prices shown are assessed prices

TAB	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Hcp (kg)	Barrier	Rating Profile	Market	Assessed	Rank
12	Hopewell Rock	G Boughey	Zac Lloyd	54.5	15	Good	$10.0	$6.5	1
He brings the best rating profile in the race, with a 104.6 last start in the Ebor, a large-field handicap similar to the Melbourne Cup, following a 104.1 prior to that. With only 10 starts, he's lightly raced and has upside potential. The only unknown is that he hasn't run here yet, but with the best recent ratings and a profile that suggests scope to find a new peak on the day, he looks the one to beat.
24	Shockletz	C Maher	H Coffey	51.0	17	Fair	$9.5	$8.5	2
She looks the best of the Australian chances and a genuine winning hope. She secured her place by winning the Archer three starts ago with a 102.2, finishing strongly off a brutal tempo in very fast overall time. That showed good staying talent and suggests she could be even better suited at 3200m. Once qualified, it's natural to think the Maher stable backed off and kept her ticking over, timing her to peak here. With that in mind, her last two ratings of 99.5 and 100.4 have been good efforts, especially last start over a slowly run 2000m. Taking her 102.2 as a base, with the potential to find a good new peak over 3200m, she's right in the mix.
20	Point Of Law	C Maher	Ethan Brown	53.0	9	Sound	$7.0	$9.0	3
He's the favourite after joining the Maher stable with just four overseas starts as a Northern Hemisphere 3YO, then rating 103 to win the Geelong Cup. The way he raced up on strong speed, wanted to pull and just kept running added plenty of merit to that figure. It was a very strong win from a horse with clear talent and plenty of upside. He profiles well, but wanting to pull even in a fast-run race is the query. To run 3200m at the level needed to win, he'll have to switch off and relax, so the stable has plenty of work to do on that front. If he does everything right, he'll be enormously hard to beat, but that risk takes away any betting appeal for me. He's a very good chance, but well enough found in the market.
2	Trustyourinstinct	Joseph O'Brien	J B Mc Donald	57.0	18	Fair	$8.0	$10.0	4
He last ran 56 days ago at The Curragh in Ireland, rating 99.5 after a 102.1 in June and 103 in July. I think it's fair to say the stable probably took it easy on him in all respects last start, with an eye to the weights for this race. He's well proven around the 103 level with four prior performances, which makes him very competitive, and has James McDonald riding. The query is whether, as a 7YO with 25 starts, he can find the big new peak that might be needed to win. From barrier 18, I expect him to be ridden very quietly and he could be giving them a huge start. That's not a major knock, but with a fair overall rating profile and less upside potential than some, it's enough to take away any betting appeal. He remains among the chances.
16	So You Are	Bjorn Baker	Rachel King	54.0	7	Sound	$13.0	$15.0	5
He's been a revelation for new trainer Bjorn Baker this prep, winning his last four starts. He comes here six days after rating 102.9 to win the Bendigo Cup, matching his 102.9 over 2400m at Rosehill three runs ago. That's a solid rating profile, although others bring slightly higher recent form. Plenty of miles in his legs, consistency and the ability to settle forward are all positives that give him every chance. However, this will be his 13th run this prep, so I question whether he can find the considerably higher peak needed to win. He's hard to like from a win perspective, but a really competitive effort wouldn't surprise.
11	Juja Kibo	C Maher	S Clipperton	55.0	14	Sound	$12.0	$16.0	6
He's flying this prep and brings a very solid rating profile. He ran 102.6 to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start, with more merit than the rating suggests, coming from a long way back off a slow pace with outstanding sectionals. Prior to that, he won the Metrop at Randwick with a 104.6, again off a moderate early pace before a very fast final 800m. He's in career-best form and his ratings are right on point. The query is that both wins came in slowly run races, whereas this looks at least a genuine tempo, if not stronger, over 3200m. He ran moderately in the Sydney Cup in the autumn, and while I wouldn't hold one run against him, that effort and the different race shape here leave me questioning his potential to find a big new peak in a more solidly run 3200m race. That takes away any betting appeal, but he certainly has the right lead-up form and ratings.
14	Soul Of Spain	C J Waller	Tommy Berry	54.5	5	Weak	$34.0	$18.0	7
He's one at huge odds with the potential to run a very good race. I'm happy to overlook his Caulfield Cup effort, when he was given no hope after taking off early. His rating profile this prep isn't the best, with a 100.9 over 2000m three runs ago, but the key is his Sydney Cup run last prep. He got a long way back and arguably should have won, rating 102.3 in a performance that could easily have been 103–104. While he may not have the profile to find the big new peak needed to win, I like that he'll definitely stay the distance and is drawn to get a soft run without doing any early work.
6	Enfjaar	Roger Varian	R Dawson	56.0	8	Sound	$23.0	$19.0	8
He's a UK stayer who has already had a local lead-up run, historically a good profile for the Melbourne Cup. He rated 102.9 in the Caulfield Cup, beaten only a length, after a 103.8 overseas, giving him a very solid rating profile here. His Caulfield Cup run might raise questions about 3200m, but I've seen that approach prove wrong as often as it's been right. On form and ratings, he profiles solidly for this race and I certainly don't want to underestimate him.
1	Sons And Lovers	Joseph O'Brien	Dylan Browne McMonagle	57.5	3	Fair	$19.0	$21.0	9
He last ran 60 days ago at Leopardstown and comes in good form, with a 101 rating last start and 102.1 prior to that. His big asset is the draw, which should give him a perfect run without doing any work early, something that can't be said for some of the other chances. The query is that he's already a 6YO with 19 starts, and this race is often won by a horse that goes to a big new peak on the day. That's not impossible for him, but I'm not sure his potential to reach that level is as strong as some of the others with similar or better ratings.
22	Mr Monaco	C Maher	Jabez Johnstone	52.5	16	Fair	$23.0	$26.0	10
He's in career-best form this prep for the Maher stable, rating 101.4 to win over 2520m at Flemington two starts ago, then 103 behind Juja Kibo in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. As with that horse, the query is that his last two runs came in very slowly run races, and he failed in the Sydney Cup in the autumn. The tempo over 3200m here will provide a more testing assignment than his last two.
23	Zakouma	G M Begg	W Pike	52.0	10	Weak	$34.0	$26.0	10
I'm happy to ignore his last-start run over 1600m, when unsuited back in a slowly run race that looked like a tune-up. His prior 100.5 over 2400m was a good effort and suggests he's going a little better than earlier this year, when he secured his Melbourne Cup place by winning the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m with a 99.7. That was a fast-run race and he was strong at the finish, showing he can stay a strongly run trip. It wouldn't surprise me if he found a clear new peak here. The gap between his best and what's needed to win is much greater than for some others, but I can certainly see him running a very respectable race.
4	Middle Earth	C Maher	M Zahra	56.5	1	Poor	$15.0	$31.0	12
The market gives him a chance at around $15 after finishing third in this race last year, beaten 4.3L. He carries 2kg more this time, leaving that performance rated 101.5 at these weights, and comes off a 97.8 last start. He needs a big new peak to win, considerably better than last year, and I think he's going similarly this time around. He's very one-paced, and barrier 1 doesn't look ideal for a horse like him. He'll need plenty of luck, so I'm inclined to be against him at the price.
10	Goodie Two Shoes	Joseph O'Brien	W M Lordan	55.0	19	Weak	$26.0	$34.0	13
She's now an 8YO mare, and her second in this race last year rates 102.5 at these weights, so she'll need to be better this time with the extra weight. She ran 103 two starts ago in the UK, so another good run isn't out of the question, but at her age it's hard to see her finding the new level needed to win.
18	James J Braddock	Joseph O'Brien	Craig Williams	53.5	24	Poor	$19.0	$41.0	14
He's a Northern Hemisphere 3YO with just seven starts who arrived with a bit of a wrap and was initially prominent in markets. The market has corrected a little now, and rightly so. He brings a 99 from his last overseas run and a peak of 100.6, well below some of the other contenders. He has upside potential as a lightly raced 3YO, but lacks the depth of ratings that other Northern Hemisphere 3YOs have brought to this race. I have to be against him.
19	Kizlyar	Joseph O'Brien	Beau Mertens	53.5	20	Poor	$41.0	$67.0	15
He was heavily backed from $5 to $3.80 favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but disappointed, rating only 96.2. Perhaps the moderate tempo worked against him there. His overseas peak of 100.7 came over 4000m, so he'll have no trouble getting the trip, but from a very wide draw and off a plain last-start run, he's impossible to like.
15	Zahrann	C Maher	B Melham	54.5	11	Poor	$31.0	$71.0	16
He had a minor excuse in the Caulfield Cup, barely avoiding the fall, but still only rated 98.2, with a previous best in Australia of 99.9. He has overseas form around the 103 mark, so a competitive run isn't out of the question, but it's drawing a long bow to suddenly think he's going to get back to that level.
8	Wine Dark Sea	Harry Charlton	Damian Lane	56.0	23	Weak	$41.0	$81.0	17
He started $8 third favourite in the Caulfield Cup off a good 103.2 rating overseas, but he was plain, beaten 6.6L with a 94 rating. He has the talent to be much more competitive here, but he's very hard to make a case for off what we saw last start.
17	Future History	G D Hickman	Jamie Melham	53.5	12	Weak	$51.0	$81.0	17
He had little hope when caught wide in the Moonee Valley Cup last start, rating 97.5. His prior ratings of 99.9, 102.2 and 102.2 are around his usual good level and give him the ability to run a respectable race here. As a 9YO, though, I doubt he can improve on that.
3	Knight's Choice	J G Symons & S Laxon	R Dolan	56.5	2	Poor	$34.0	$151.0	19
He surprised by winning this race last year but carries 5kg more this time, leaving that performance rated 101.9 at these weights. He failed in the Caulfield Cup, but his prior 99.4 showed some semblance of form. He needs a clear new peak, better than he was last year.
5	Vauban	G Waterhouse & A Bott	Jordan Childs	56.5	22	Poor	$51.0	$151.0	19
He comes into this second-up, a huge query after a poor Geelong Cup run that rated just 96.1. He has some ratings that would be competitive, but appears to have had a few issues since earlier this year, with limited racing. He doesn't give the impression of arriving in good form and ready to peak, especially now as a 9YO.
9	Asterix	C J Waller	Jye McNeil	55.0	6	Poor	$51.0	$151.0	19
He's an 8YO coming off a 93.8 in the Caulfield Cup after failing at Flemington, albeit on heavy ground. His best form is generally in the 100 to 102 range, still well short of what's needed to win this race. He needs to improve massively on his last two and then find a big new peak to win the race. That's impossible to make a case for.
7	Royal Supremacy	C Maher	Ben Allen	56.0	21	Poor	$51.0	$201.0	22
He was beaten 17L in the Caulfield Cup after winning over 2000m with a 101.8 rating. He walked in front in that win, a similar scenario to his Eagle Farm victory, and won't get those race shape favours here.
21	Strictly Business	Thomas Carberry	D Yendall	53.0	4	Poor	$61.0	$201.0	22
This time last year, she looked a potential staying star of Australian racing, rating 104.4 to win the VRC Oaks and powering to the line off a strong tempo over 2500m. She hasn't looked the same horse since. She ran 97.8 when second in the SA Oaks last prep, but has been terrible this prep, rating 80.7 and 86.8 in her last two. Winning this would be one of the biggest turnarounds in racing history. There was clear staying potential this time last year, so never say never, but she looks to be going terribly at present.
13	Onesmoothoperator	T Fitzsimmons	Declan Bates	54.5	13	Poor	$61.0	$251.0	24
He failed in last year's Melbourne Cup and remained here but hasn't done much since. Ratings of 95.7, 94.5 and 90.1 this prep make him impossible to make a case for.

As in most years, this looks a very open Melbourne Cup with numerous potential winners. Hopewell Rock has the best profile for me, bringing the strongest lead-up ratings as a lightly raced Northern Hemisphere stayer with upside, a key factor in winning this race. Shockletz looks the best of the locals. She's been kept ticking over since her good Archer win secured her place and looks ready to find a big new peak over 3200m. Favourite Point Of Law also profiles well on his last-start rating and upside. My only query is his racing manners in the Geelong Cup, which he won't be able to repeat over two miles. If he does everything right, he'll be enormously hard to beat, but that adds an extra betting risk compared to others. With that in mind, I think he's well enough found in the market, albeit clearly a good chance. Plenty of others have hopes, with Soul Of Spain my best long shot, followed by Zakouma.

Recommended Win Bet

Hopewell Rock silks #12 Hopewell Rock

Exotic Bets

For First

#12 Hopewell Rock $6.5
#24 Shockletz $8.5
#20 Point Of Law $9.0
#14 Soul Of Spain $18.0
#23 Zakouma $26.0

For Second / Third / Fourth

All those for first plus:

#2 Trustyourinstinct $10.0
#16 So You Are $15.0
#11 Juja Kibo $16.0
#6 Enfjaar $19.0
#1 Sons And Lovers $21.0
#22 Mr Monaco $26.0

Tactical Speed Map

Race Assessment

Race Summary and Betting

Recommended Win Bet

Exotic Bets

For First

For Second / Third / Fourth